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Last update: May 14, 2020, 15:45 EDT
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Total Degree-Days chart shows the running aggregate of the projected number of total-degree days (TDDs = CDDs + HDDs) over the next 15-day period, a 30-year norm (white curve) and last year's results (light gray curve). The chart also displays the price of natural gas prompt month futures contract (NYMEX Henry Hub - bright blue curve). 

Projected TDDs are shown at two runs: 00z (01:00 EST or 02:00 EDT) and 12z (15:00 EST or 16:00 EDT). Each point on the red curves (00z and 12z runs) represents a 15-day forecast. Horizontal axis shows the dates when the forecast was made. This chart DOES NOT show "historical actuals". This chart shows "historical forecasts" and also displays the closing price for the prompt month contract on the date when the forecast was made. 

Historical data are available from January 26, 2018.

The chart is interactive. You can click on any series in the legend to hide/show the data. You can also click on the chart and drag out a specific area you wish to zoom. Alternatively, use calendar filter to select a specific data range. Also, to print or download the chart, click on the "menu" button in the top right corner of the chart.

Update: every weekday (twice per day) + Sunday afternoon.

Source: BGR hybrid model comprised of GFS, NAM, Canadian GGEM and ECMWF.

Traders' Note

Each day, the forecast is extended by one extra day. Therefore, the absolute number of projected cooling degree-days (CDDs) will be rising as the forecast moves closer towards peak summer consumption (July-August). Equally, the absolute number of projected heating degree-days (HDDs) will be rising as the forecast moves closer towards peak winter consumption (January-February).

CDDs normally peak on July 25 (+/- a few days) and HDDs normally peak on January 15 (+/- a few days). Therefore, when looking at the above chart, it is important to remember that:

  1. from January 1 and up until July 10 (roughly), the "bullish changes" in projected CDDs and the "bearish changes" in projected HDDs will be partly seasonal (i.e., partly expected);
  2. from July 10 and up until January 1 (roughly), the "bullish changes" in projected HDDs and the "bearish changes" in projected CDD will be partly seasonal (i.e., partly expected).

As a rule, the bulls want TDDs to be above the norm and trend up, while the bears want TDDs to be below the norm and trend down.

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