Description

Expectations Gap chart (aka "predicted surprise") shows the difference between our storage forecast (flows) and storage figures reported in the EIW-US EIA Financial Weekly Index. We calculate the sum of projections for two reports and sometimes for three reports (in case, it is possible) and then calculate the difference.

Historical data are available from October 18, 2016.

The chart is interactive. You can click on any series in the legend to hide/show the data. You can also click on the chart and drag out a specific area you wish to zoom. Alternatively, use calendar filter to select a specific data range. Also, to print or download the chart, click on the "menu" button in the top right corner of the chart.

Update: every weekday + Sunday afternoon.

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

Traders' Note

While the relationship between natural gas price and ICE Financial Weekly Index has not been fully researched yet, we believe that the expectations gap can serve as a measure of "price adequacy" - i.e., show to what extent the market has priced in the upcoming bullish or bearish reports.

• Positive figures mean that we expect either smaller draws from natural gas storage or larger injections into natural gas storage than indicated in ICE reports. Positive figures imply what we call a "potential bearish surprise".
• Negative figures mean that we expect either bigger draws from natural gas storage or smaller injections into natural gas storage than indicated in ICE reports. Negative figures imply what we call a "potential bullish surprise".